MTECHTIPS Time To Buy SGBs, The Effect Of Low Oil Price On Norwegian Numbers

MTECHTIPS Time To Buy SGBs, The Effect Of Low Oil Price On Norwegian Numbers

In Sweden, we receive some of the final pieces of the Q4 15 GDP puzzle, as producer prices (Tuesday at 09:30 CET), the labour force survey, the trade balance and retail sales (all due Thursday at 09:30 CET) are published. In general, we expect an upbeat tone, as indicators pertaining to the end of 2015 still looked benign. Talking about the devil, we are also due to receive the first few indicators for 2016 in the coming week, specifically the National Institute for Economic Research (NIER) will release both the Business (BCI) and Consumer (CCI) confidence surveys for January on Wednesday (at 09:00 CET). There is an apparent risk that the financial market turmoil will leave its mark on this set of data. In Norway the latest dip in oil prices may mean the week's data attract particular interest. Centre stage will be the retail sales figures for December on Friday. We know that the extension of Black Friday to a whole week brought a lot of Christmas trading forward from December to November. Therefore, we expect a correction in December, with retail sales falling 0.6% m/m. Elsewhere Statistics Norway will release its Q4 manufacturing tendency survey, due on Thursday. As the decline in oil investment is hitting the Norwegian economy mainly via manufacturing, this is where we need to look for signs of stabilisation. Given the contracts for the Johan Sverdrup field now being awarded, we still see the main indicator rising from -7.6 in Q3 to -6.0 in Q4. The week also brings January jobless data from the NAV on Friday and we expect registered unemployment to climb to 3.3%. In Denmark, the statistical office is due to release jobless figures for December and manufacturing confidence for January, both on Thursday.